Jupiter the most anticipated airdrop of 2024 (So far)

One of the most anticipated airdrops of the year (even though the year just got started ha), is right around the corner. 3 days from the time of this writing. That’s right we are talking about Jupiter.

Jupiters major comps are uniswap, dydx, and makerdao. Jupiters volumes have already surpassed that of the largest DEX on ethereum uniswap. So we are potentially looking at quite the king maker.

So for this research we will be taking these comps and analyzing them relative to OTC prices and how they trade relative to the respective ICO of the coin. It looks like otc markets were pretty good at pricing in the opening price of these airdrops. So let’s dive in.

The average bid for $WEN was in the 39.2m mc range to 65.5m mc range for filled orders. Currently we are trading at 160m mc.

Shown here the purple box roughly represents the otc markets filled price range, and in this case it was a good buying opportunity.

The average bid on $ALT was in the 1.6b mc range to 3.3b mc range. We are currently trading at 4b mc and had a high of roughly 4.4b mc at the time of this publication. So again another great buying opportunity.

Knowing this information we can reasonably assume that the OTC markets have not fully priced in the ICO, perhaps due to a lack of liquidity.

We can then go ahead and compare Jupiter to its comps on the ETH equivalent DYDX/UNI/MKR to validate our thesis. When combined, represent the different functions which are utilized on Jupiter's platform. Roughly these are the current valuations that we would get.

Which are in the lower end of the range with what the otc markets expectations are, as shown below.

The average bid being around 4.7b mc and ask being 6.2b mc.

Now you may ask yourself at what range will we trade to our comps, if this is our expectation. When we compare it to JTO, the last major cap Solana airdrop. It traded roughly in the range from .4x to 1.8x to its ETH equivalent LDO.

Knowing this information the OTC markets are roughly inline with our expectations, of JUP trading at the lower end of its comps range at roughly .4x-.8x at opening. With a possibility of going as high as 1.8x in the most bullish scenario. This would give $Jup one of the largest valuations of any protocol on Solana. I expect the opening of this coin to be a total pandemonium, riddled with sniping bots and poorly setup LPs. However, should any of these thesis be validated in the opening minutes/hours of the ICO, it should help you make an informed decision with the research done before hand. Good luck out there.